In case you’re not on the internet, the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump on Friday went really, really badly. What was meant to be the final step towards a critical minerals deal devolved into a shouting match between Trump and the Ukrainian leader, with the former accusing Zelenskyy of being “not…at all thankful” and “gambling with World War III.”
After the on-air quarrel, Zelenskyy was told to leave the White House without signing the minerals deal, while Trump wrote that he had been “disrespectful” on Truth Social. European leaders and US allies reacted to the meeting with shock; many took to X to express support for Ukraine. (Zelenskyy, to prove a point, thanked each of them individually). Many of those same leaders met in London yesterday to chart a path forward with the Ukrainian leader.
So, we had to ask. What happens now?
By the numbers: Let’s start off with the basics:
- Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the US has provided $65.9B in military assistance to Kyiv, according to a fact sheet published by the State Department on Jan. 20. The Biden administration used the Presidential Drawdown Authority 55 times from 2022–2025 to provide nearly $28B in assistance from DoD stockpiles.
- The US and Ukraine—along with other allies—have participated in joint military exercises and the US has provided training to Ukraine.
- Congress has approved $174B in spending on the war, including humanitarian aid and assistance to other countries affected by the conflict.
Support for Ukraine long received bipartisan support, but dissent among leading Republicans including JD Vance and Trump picked up speed in late 2023 and 2024. Trump has said the US has sent $300-350B in aid, a figure contradicted by government data. Losing US military support could greatly undermine Ukraine’s fight against Russia, according to experts.
About-face: Washington’s position vis-a-vis Ukraine shifted drastically last month when Trump held an hour-and-a-half long phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. US officials then met with Russian leaders in Saudi Arabia, where they discussed a peace deal that…didn’t include Ukraine. Since then, Trump’s rhetoric on Ukraine has taken on a somewhat pro-Kremlin flavor:
- He called Zelenskyy a dictator, then said that he didn’t
- He accused Ukraine of starting the conflict
- He’s said that Ukraine needs to pay back the aid it received (hence the minerals deal)
- He called for Ukraine to hold elections, claiming that Zelenskyy’s approval rating is 4%
Apparently, the flow of weapons and aid to Ukraine has also all but stopped. All signals from the White House over the weekend indicated the Trump administration is doubling down: Secretary of State Rubio defended the meeting, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the minerals deal is “in limbo,” and Elon Musk seemed to indicate he thinks the US should leave the UN and NATO.
On Sunday, the DoD also called for an end to all cyber operations against Russia.
London calling: At the emergency summit with President Zelenskyy in London this weekend, European leaders emerged staunchly on the side of Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Europe would form a “coalition of the willing” to support Kyiv and would surge military support to the country. He also said the UK would make available $2B in British export finance to the Ukrainians to buy 5,000 air defense missiles.
On Sunday evening, the British leader laid out the framework for a peace deal in Ukraine, led by Europe and—he hopes—supported by the US.
European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen said at the meeting that Europe needed to “urgently rearm” and turn Ukraine into a “steel porcupine” (we’re assuming that makes more sense in German). Looks like this could be a hell of an era for European defense innovation, and a critical turning point for Ukraine.