In case anyone thought the war in Ukraine was over, well, it’s not. Yesterday, on the eve of the third anniversary of the war, Russia launched 267 attack drones towards the country in its largest attack to date. Ukraine managed to down or jam most of them, according to Kyiv, but damage was reported in five regions.
- The attack came as world leaders including EU President Ursula Von Der Leyen and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau arrived in Kyiv to commemorate the third year of conflict.
- European and Ukrainian leaders are on tenterhooks after the Trump administration pulled a 180 on American support for Kyiv and Europe last week.
- Zelenskyy appealed to the US and European allies for continued support following the attack.
Automated warfare: So, how have three years of war in Ukraine changed the way we think about warfare and the weapons used to fight it? First and foremost, it’s shown us the power of unmanned systems.
In the early days of the conflict, Ukraine shocked the world by fending off one of the world’s largest armies using drones and mobile phones. Videos shot by Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones showed them destroying miles-long Russian columns.
Since then, hundreds of different drones have been deployed on the battlefield. Ukraine is now capable of producing 4M drones a year, according to President Zelenskyy, and drones from international companies including AeroVironment, Helsing, Anduril, and Shield AI have all been tested by the country’s forces.
The war has revealed a simple fact: it’s possible to do a lot of damage with comparatively cheap, attritable, easily-produced equipment. The United States and its allies need to change the way they build, buy, and field weapons accordingly.
Living and learning: A January report by the European Council on Foreign Relations points to four other lessons that Western countries can learn from the conflict:
- It’s critical to prepare for conflicts-by-drone, but Europe and the West should be careful when prioritizing drones over more expensive systems. In a potential conflict with China, for example, drones might not be quite so useful.
- Western countries need to learn from both Russia and Ukraine by developing, testing, and adopting new technologies quickly. Drones age real fast.
- Drones and their supply chains are riddled with components from China. This is a massive security risk, especially in a potential fight over Taiwan.
- Drones have enabled more civilian participation in warfare. It’s pretty easy to buy and modify a quadcopter. Democratic nations need to figure out how to contend with this (especially in terms of figuring out who, exactly, is a combatant).
The war has also proved the importance of c-UAS systems and EW resistance. No matter how many drones you have, they’re pretty useless if they get shot down or you can’t use them.