Amidst the flurry of executive orders and appointments in the past week, a Ukraine-shaped elephant has lurked in the corner of the Oval Office.
President Trump has long expressed doubt over US support for Ukraine, repeatedly saying he would end the war in a matter of days. So far, he’s failed to do so—but is using threats of sanctions to summon Putin to the negotiating table. The administration has also cut nearly all foreign aid for 90 days, calling into question further US support for the war effort, though President Zelenskyy has said military aid has not yet been halted.
On the march: Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the Russian army continues its advance. As Washington faltered, a slew of private defense companies (and European governments) pledged support for Kyiv. Much of that support has come in the form of drones—Helsing, AeroVironment, Anduril, and Shield AI, among others, have provided the Ukrainian military with UAVs. But military experts say it will take much more to actually deter Russia.
“Unfortunately, when it comes [to] strike drones, Ukrainian forces both produce and use them in such large volumes—we’re talking over 1.5M per year at this point—that a few thousand drones, just in terms of the scale of deployment, isn’t going to make much of a difference,” Mike Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the host of the Russia Contingency podcast, told Tectonic.
Drone wars: Ukraine has already mastered the use of inexpensive, domestically-made drones against Russian forces, according to Kofman. Yes, these are sometimes composed of Chinese parts, but they’re also hacked to meet Ukraine’s exact, moment-to-moment needs. They’re also cheap (we’re talking hundreds or thousands of dollars), which means they’re essentially disposable.
“By and large, western drone systems tend to be overpriced relative to the qualitative advantage that they bring, and many Ukrainian systems, Ukrainian produced systems, are just as capable, if not more capable. They’re also easier to manufacture and deploy,” Kofman said.
So what does Ukraine really need? Both Kofman and Daria Yaniieva, a VC at Sigma Software Labs who invests in Ukrainian defense companies, say software: Command and control systems those drones can plug into, EW-resistant capabilities, and AI and intelligence platforms that can speed up decision-making.
In other words, according to Kofman, until the war actually ends, Kyiv needs “capabilities that prove to be enablers for the systems that Ukraine can already produce.”